How we calculate Safe, Likely and Reach for NEET PG

The data

We rebuilt closing ranks from the official MCC allotment lists: 2025 Round 1, 2, 3 and Stray, and 2026 Round 1. Closing rank = the worst AIR still holding a seat in that institute, course, quota and category after the round.

The projection

For Round 2 we take this year’s Round 1 closing rank and apply how cut-offs moved from Round 1 to Round 2 last year, for that quota (All India median about +17%, DNB +11%, deemed +16%).

Seats near the end of the allotment list move less and can even fall, so they get their own smaller movement and a stricter Safe line. No seat is called Safe for ranks beyond about 70% of the last rank allotted in the round.

The test

Before launch we scored the method on 284 real 2025 candidates against the actual Round 2 result: Safe seats were attainable 99.8% of the time, Likely 81%, Reach 40%, with zero eligibility errors.

The limits

No one can guarantee a seat. New seats added before a round can move cut-offs further. Our counsellors also review paid reports and suggest changes where needed.